The final stretch of Virginia’s gubernatorial race is beginning to look a lot like the last few months of the 2024 presidential election, with anti-LGBTQ+ Lt. Gov. and Republican candidate Winsome Earle-Sears’ campaign echoing the presidential campaign’s anti-trans playbook in ads attacking Democratic opponent Abigail Spanberger.

Earle-Sears is currently behind Spanberger in both polling and fundraising, according to CNN and NBC News, in a race that is seen as an early test of Democratic messaging ahead of the 2026 midterms. Now, Earle-Sears seems to be betting on ginning up anti-trans panic to push her ahead in November’s election.

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Last week, the Earle-Sears campaign released two ads attacking and mischaracterizing Spanberger’s record on LGBTQ+ rights as a member of Congress. One of those ads explicitly echoes anti-trans ads released by the 2024 GOP presidential campaign, which said, “Kamala Harris is for they/them.”

As NBC News notes, the Earle-Sears ad falsely characterizes Spanberger’s February 2021 vote in favor of the Equality Act, which would have added sexual orientation and gender identity to the list of protected classes under existing civil rights law, as a vote “to allow men in girls’ sports, bathrooms, and locker rooms.” It also cites her opposition to policies instituted in 2022 by the administration of Virginia’s Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin that require the state’s schools to out trans students to their parents. The ad ends with the slogan “Spanberger is for they/them, not for us.”

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A second attack ad released by the Earle-Sears campaign last week claims that Spanberger “wants boys to play sports and share locker rooms with little girls” and that she will “let children change genders without telling their parents.”

Spanberger, who, according to NBC News, has generally shied away from trans issues during her campaign, appeared to address Earle-Sears’ ads in her own ad last week. Noting that she is a “mom to 3 girls in public school,” in the ad, Spanberger says that “Nothing matters more to me than the safety of all our kids.”

“As a law enforcement officer, I went after child predators, so it really angers me to hear these lies about who I am,” she continues. “I believe we need to get politics out of our schools and trust parents and local communities.”

Republicans in Virginia view the issue as one that will energize their base and alienate moderate and swing voters from Spanberger.

“This is an 80/20 issue. And the fact that the ‘moderate standard-bearer’ of the Democratic Party cannot squarely put herself on the 80% side is dumbfounding,” Virginia Republican operative Justin Discigil told NBC News.

According to CNN, Spanberger has yet to directly address whether trans students should have the right to use school bathrooms that align with their gender identity or whether trans women and girls should be allowed to participate in women’s and girls’ sports. Her campaign has focused instead on economic issues — and linking Earle-Sears to the president — according to NBC News. Sam Newton, communication director for the Democratic Governors Association, told CNN that those “kitchen table issues” are what will really sway voters in November.

“In battleground races for governor in 2022, 2023, and 2024, voters consistently rejected extreme Republicans who spent all their time stoking division with culture wars in favor of Democratic candidates who won by aggressively campaigning on plans to address the biggest kitchen table issues impacting families,” Newton said.

At the same time, in a statement to CNN, Earle-Sears campaign spokesperson Peyton Vogel suggested that forcing Spanberger to address the issue of trans rights was a victory for the Republican candidate.

“Abigail Spanberger was forced to go on defense and release an ad after remaining silent about her stance on boys’ in girls’ sports and locker rooms,” Vogel’s statement read. “Now, instead of hiding in her basement, she’s hiding behind a manufactured TV ad trying to repair her badly damaged image.”

But Democratic strategist Fred Hicks told CNN that Spanberger’s response to the Earle-Sears ads was a smart “opening salvo” on the issue, while community organizer Monica Hutchinson, the parent of a transgender Virginia student, said she understands “the delicate balance” Spanberger is trying to strike.

“We have allowed this issue to balloon and overshadow all of the other really serious issues that plague Virginia,” Hutchinson told CNN.

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